Fertility Transition: Is sub-Saharan Africa Different?

Fertility in sub-Saharan africa (“africa”) stood at 5.1 births per woman in 2005–10 (united nations 2011), more than double the replacement level. this high fertility combined with declining mortality has resulted in rapid population growth—2.5 percent per year—and the un projects the sub-Saharan population to grow from 0.86 billion in 2010 to 1.96 billion in 2050 and 3.36 billion in 2100. Such unprecedented expansion of human numbers creates a range of social, economic, and environmental challenges and makes it more difficult for the continent to raise living standards. Hence the growing interest in demographic trends in africa among policymakers. according to conventional demographic theory, high fertility in the early stages of the demographic transition is the consequence of high desired family size. Couples want many children to assist with family enterprises such as farming and for security in old age. in addition, high child mortality leads parents to have additional children to protect against loss or to replace losses. Fertility decline occurs once rising levels of urbanization and education, changes in the economy, and declining mortality lead parents to desire a smaller number of births. to implement these desires, parents rely on contraception or abortion, and family planning programs in many countries accelerate their adoption (notestein 1945; easterlin 1975, 1978; lee and Bulatao 1983). this theory is widely accepted as a broad outline of the forces that shape fertility transitions and is consistent with much empirical evidence (Bryant 2007). as countries develop, fertility generally falls and there is a strong inverse correlation between development indicators and fertility in contemporary societies (with africa characterized by relatively low levels of social and economic development and, accordingly, high fertility). the theory is not without its critics, however, who claim that fertility change can be brought about by ideational change and the diffusion of ideas (Bongaarts and watkins